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The first was direct marketing (emails, texts, push notifications). Citing randomised studies, the committee noted that limiting direct marketing resulted in reduced betting and fewer short-term harms.
Referencing an Australian study on direct marketing and its link to gambling harms, Dr Philip Newall, senior lecturer at the University of Bristol noted that “causality was established by getting a random subset of participants to opt-out of receiving direct marketing offers”.
It was found that “this group then self-reported significantly lower expenditure and harms [ … ] over the next two weeks”.
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The news comes as prediction market operators continue to form alliances with major media outlets. These deals allow news outlets to embed event contract data into their reporting and offer prediction platforms more visibility to investors and news audiences.
Polymarket has developed its media presence elsewhere. In January, it signed a deal with Dow Jones to provide its prediction market data to several of the publisher’s consumer platforms. The deal covers publications including The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, MarketWatch and Investor’s Business Daily.
Prediction markets have become more and more intertwined with sports and entertainment businesses. Polymarket has agreements with Major League Baseball and Sportsradar. Sportsradar provides data and services for more than 20 sports leagues and competitions.
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His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.
The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.
But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.
