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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
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Another point of contention was content marketing and influencer promotions. The Lords committee advised treating this as advertising and, if a full ban were not immediately feasible, prioritising its prohibition.
Sponsorships and advertising with sports teams was also flagged as according to the report, voluntary efforts had failed to reduce the industry’s exposure.
With int he report Dr Matt Gaskell MBE observed that “overall exposure (including shirts, hoardings, logos, sponsorship and related marketing) during live sports programmes does not show that self-regulation has reduced exposure meaningfully”.
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