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Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.

For Marantelli, the exchange format could also cause some customers to lose money faster than they would with a conventional sportsbook. The ability to enter and exit positions creates a perception of flexibility, but that optionality can encourage users to commit more of their bankroll.

A customer might buy a team at 55 or 56 cents expecting the price to rise to 58 or 59 cents, he explains. If it falls to 45 cents instead, the trader may refuse to accept the loss and continue holding the position.

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Notably, the Spectrum report does acknowledge that Evolution did not knowingly allow games in prohibited territories, however, it has also flagged a number of compliance issues, which resulted in its games being provided in markets where online gambling is, or has been, prohibited.

Here are some of the dossier’s key findings, some of which raise questions around Evolution’s compliance operations during the period assessed.

Within the initial pages of its lengthy August 2021 report, Spectrum Gaming explains it carried out an extensive technical, operational and compliance review of Evolution’s “business practices, public record database research and an assessment of the company’s anti-money laundering compliance procedures and processes, as they related to the allegations contained in the ‘anonymous report'”.

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